Study on Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption of Shandong Province of China from 1995 to 2012

Carbon emissions from energy consumption of Shandong province from 1995 to 2012 are calculated. Three zero-residual decomposition models (LMDI, MRCI and Shapley value models) are introduced for decomposing carbon emissions. Based on the results, Kendall coordination coefficient method is employed for testing their compatibility, and an optimal weighted combination decomposition model is constructed for improving the objectivity of decomposition. STIRPAT model is applied to evaluate the impact of each factor on carbon emissions. The results show that, using 1995 as the base year, the cumulative effects of population, per capita GDP, energy consumption intensity, and energy consumption structure of Shandong province in 2012 are positive, while the cumulative effect of industrial structure is negative. Per capita GDP is the largest driver of the increasing carbon emissions and has a great impact on carbon emissions; energy consumption intensity is a weak driver and has certain impact on carbon emissions; population plays a weak driving role, but it has the most significant impact on carbon emissions; energy consumption structure is a weak driver of the increasing carbon emissions and has a weak impact on carbon emissions; industrial structure has played a weak inhibitory role, and its impact on carbon emissions is great.